Pacific Polarity

In this episode of Pacific Polarity, Costa Rican economist and former politician Otton Solís Fallas discussed the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the logic of the “Donroe Doctrine,” and the consequences of US–China rivalry for smaller states. Otton argues that Washington’s actions mark a return to a colonial-era “might makes right” approach, with Trump discarding democratic rhetoric in favor of a blunt assertion of American interest. He suggests many Latin American countries quietly share this unease but lack the freedom to say so, echoing the region’s historic subordination to external powers. Otton hopes China can ac...

Arnaud Bertrand argues that the new US National Security Strategy signals a reluctant American acceptance of a multipolar world and a search for ways to coexist rather than dominate. He contends that China’s worldview is fundamentally non-missionary and oriented toward an integrated global system rather than bloc confrontation, shaped by history and cultural distance from the West. Arnaud suggests that hawkish shifts in Europe and Japan reflect anxiety over US retrenchment, even as Washington itself increasingly recognises China’s leverage and the need to accommodate its core concerns. Ultimately, he warns against a Cold War mentality, urging states to a...

Cyan Ventures' Shaun Chau discussed Australia’s failed COP bid, the global headwinds facing climate action, and what a pragmatic path forward might look like for the climate camp.

James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute at UTS shares his thoughts on China’s economic headwinds, the US–China trade war, and the state of Australia–China relations.

Zhao Long of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies shares how China sees its role in a shifting global order. Dr Zhao argues that China can break the historical cycle of great powers seeking spheres of influence, instead advancing a development-driven model for Asia within a multipolar world. He highlights initiatives like the Global Governance Initiative and the SCO Development Bank as concrete steps toward collective security. Dr Zhao also notes that many regional states view US-China rivalry as both risk and opportunity, leveraging competition to attract investment and diversify partnerships. On Russia-US dynamics, he sees little chance of...

Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses how China is extending its internal security model abroad, and what that means for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. She explains how Beijing’s campaign-style governance and surveillance technologies are being repurposed as tools of global security influence, raising risks of autocratization, but also potential blowback for China reminiscent of Cold War overreach. From the Solomon Islands to Taiwan, she outlines the implications for Australia, regional allies, and the U.S., where debates over securitization, alliance management, and even academic engagement with China reveal the difficult trade-offs of balancing security and openness in an in...

Former Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski discusses the shifting balance of power in Southeast Asia and what it means for Australia. From the risks of a potential U.S. retrenchment, to the stabilising role of competition between Washington and Beijing, he argues that Australia has few viable strategic alternatives to its alliance with the United States. Drawing on his experience across Southeast Asia and beyond, Goledzinowski highlights the opportunities in critical minerals, the challenges of sustaining immigration support at home, and why regional engagement requires both patience and long-term commitment. Above all, he stresses that international affairs resemble chaos theory, a “bu...

On this episode of Pacific Polarity, Natalie Sambhi, Executive Director of Verve Research, discussed how Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is caught between protest and power politics, navigating domestic unrest while striving for a place on the world stage. Dr Sambhi explains how Prabowo’s push to be seen at major international fora reflects Indonesia’s ambitions as a Global South power, even as China looms large in its hedging strategy and Western partners fret over Jakarta’s openness to multiple alignments. At home, Prabowo faces mounting demonstrations and a legacy of military influence that continues to shape Indonesian politics, though...

Syaza Shukri, Associate Professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia, discusses how Malaysia is navigating deep-rooted ethnic politics at home and shifting geopolitical currents abroad under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. She highlights how Malaysia’s affirmative action policies and mono-ethnic party system continue to shape divisive domestic debates, while on the global stage, suspicions of both China and the West complicate foreign policy perceptions. Although Anwar has leaned into the language of “Asian civilisation,” Syaza argues his diplomacy is less about aligning with Beijing than about engaging all sides, even if that stance is less appreciated in Western capitals. Politi...

Jersey Lee spoke with Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about Australia’s strategic future. Roggeveen, author of The Echidna Strategy, argues for a continental defence posture rather than tying Australia to AUKUS and US forward defence priorities, warning that Washington’s interest in Asian dominance is inconsistent and driven more by prestige than necessity. He sees Australia as the largest Pacific power with the capacity to build a regional sphere of influence, while Southeast Asia risks falling into China’s orbit. He also warns that Trump’s second term would pose greater challenges than his first, reflects on lessons from Brexi...

Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr., former IMF executive director and founding VP of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), discusses why both institutions fall short in serving the Global South.

He explains how IMF reforms to boost developing countries’ representation stalled because meaningful change would increase China’s voting share — something the West resists — while the U.S. insists on keeping veto power. This, he argues, entrenches geopolitical bias, with the IMF acting as a “North Atlantic Monetary Fund.”

Paulo also critiques the NDB: voting rules that entrench founding BRICS power, weak transparency, politicized leadership, and no resident...

Will Glasgow, China correspondent for The Australian, talks about the complexities of reporting from China, the evolving state of China-Australia relations, and more

International Crisis Group's William Yang discusses about Taiwan’s increasingly precarious geopolitical position as it faces mounting pressure from China and shifting demands from the US. He unpacks the implications of US “reciprocal tariffs,” stalled trade negotiations, and the cancelled Latin America trip, as well as domestic political tensions heightened by a failed DPP-led recall effort. William discusses Taiwan’s constrained ability to hedge, the limits of “resist China” messaging, and the need for pragmatic policy shifts, such as rethinking energy and defence strategies. He also reflects on regional dynamics, the role of Japan and Australia, and the importance of coupling...

Dr Nguyen Khac Giang discusses how Vietnam’s domestic politics and foreign policy are shaped by intensifying US-China rivalry. He discusses Vietnam’s adaptation of China’s development model, the political impact of its anti-corruption drive, and the country’s deep reliance on trade as both strength and vulnerability. Dr Nguyen explains how Vietnam balances ties with China (a regime and economic partner) and the US (a security partner), and outlines Hanoi’s long-term shift toward a “Banyan diplomacy” strategy, deepening domestic roots and diversifying international partnerships to reduce geopolitical risk.

In this episode of Pacific Polarity, Donald Low elaborates on what makes the Singapore model click, as well as the lessons in governance that China and America can continue to learn from Singapore’s experience.

In the latest episode of Pacific Polarity, Ambassador Kurt Tong offers sharp reflections on American diplomacy in Asia. He underscores growing demands on the State Department’s capacity, particularly as issues like trade increasingly intersect with domestic politics, requiring careful coordination across multiple U.S. federal agencies

Jersey Lee

Welcome to this episode of Pacific polarity. Today we’re speaking with Ambassador Kurt Tong. Ambassador Tong is Managing Partner at The Asia Group, where he leads consulting teams focused on Japan, greater China and Korea, and on East Asia regional policy matters. He is a form...

What's driving dynamics across Asia? In our latest Pacific Polarity episode, Dr. Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace breaks down the key geopolitical trends reshaping the Indo-Pacific.

Our expansive dialogue covered several topics, including:

* Climate change in the Pacific,

* A prospectus of AUKUS and U.S.-Australia relations,

* China’s hardware-software tech ecosystem,

* The future of rule-setting in Asia,

* U.S.-China economic statecraft, and

* The importance of American strategists to understand the concerns and aspirations of Asian states as independent ac...

Richard Gray

Welcome to today's episode of Pacific Polarity. Today we're speaking with Dr. Kazuto Suzuki, who is director of the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan and professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo. Dr. Suzuki also serves as president of the Japan Association of International Security and Trade, and an advisor of the Japanese government on National Space Policy Committee of the Cabinet Office. Dr. Suzuki, pleasure to be speaking with you.

Kazuto Suzuki

Pleasure is all mine. Thank you.

...

For this episode, we spoke with Ambassador Jane Hardy, non-resident senior fellow at the United States Study Centre, University of Sydney, and served as ambassador to Spain, Australian Consul General in Honolulu. Ambassador Hardy discusses her diplomatic postings, in particular the work that goes into engaging with America, and comments on the state of the alliance in Trump 2.0. She reveals that, even though she only left the post of Consul General to Honolulu in June 2021, she had no prior knowledge of AUKUS, which was announced in September 2021.

For this episode, we spoke with Professor Michael Green, who is CEO of the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney, and served in the U.S. National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration. Dr. Green advocates for America’s allies to remain committed to the alliance, but notes the many counterproductive moves by the Trump administration that, while mostly reversible, are damaging America’s global strategy at a privotal moment in the competition with China.

Richard Gray

Welcome to Pacific Polarity. Today, we're speaking with Dr. Michael Green, who is CEO...

For this episode, we spoke with the Honourable Gareth Evans, who served as Australia’s foreign minister from 1988 to 1996. Mr. Evans is a strong advocate for Australia pursuing a more independent foreign policy. In our conversation, we discussed how Australia should navigate the Asia-Pacific, between a less reliable U.S., and a more assertive China.

For this episode, we spoke with Victor Shih, Professor at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. Dr. Shih is a leading expert on Chinese finance, political economy, and elite politics. In our conversation, we discussed China’s vision for international economic governance and the how Washington and Beijing are approaching the trade war today.

Richard Gray

Welcome to this episode of Pacific Polarity. Today we're speaking with Dr. Victor Schur, who's a professor at UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, where he is the Director of the 21st Cent...

In this conversation with Steven Okun, we discuss the evolving relationships economic relationship between Washington and Southeast Asia.

During his career in and out of government, Steve has worked on policy issues on both sides of the Pacific. Today, as the founder of APAC Advisors, he counsels clients on sustainability and public affairs strategy.

Richard Gray

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Pacific Clarity. Today we're talking with Steve Okun. Steve's career spans government service, consulting, and social impact. A seasoned Democratic presidential campaigner, Steve received a political appointment to the U.S. Department of...

What is China’s grand strategy? What are the PRC’s principles in foreign affairs, and how does it’s government structure inform matters of decision-making? These are some of the questions we attempted to answer on this episode of Pacific Polarity with retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo. During his career in the People’s Liberation Army, Zhou engaged extensively with foreign counterparts and was a consistent participant at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Today, as a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS), he continues to share China’s perspectives on security issues with the world.<...

In this episode, veteran Australian diplomat Richard Broinowski reflects on Australia’s historical discomfort with its geographic position in Asia and the strategic shift that began in the post-Vietnam War era toward deeper engagement with the region. Drawing on his experience as ambassador to Vietnam and other Asian nations, Broinowski discusses the challenges and missed opportunities in Australia’s regional diplomacy, critiques the AUKUS agreement as limiting Australia's strategic autonomy, and calls for a more pragmatic and constructive relationship with China. He also highlights the importance of nuanced diplomacy amid the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry and reflects on the br...

A summary of our conversation is available here.

Note: Our conversation took place on the eve of Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Due to Patrick’s connectivity issues, the conversation was conducted via phone call, leading to less than ideal audio quality. The transcript below has been cleaned up and can be referred to for a more polished version of our conversation.

Jersey Lee

Today we're delighted to be talking with Patrick Buchan. So Patrick, could you briefly give us a bit on your background?

Patrick Buchan

Thanks, it's great to be on...

Europe’s status on the world stage is increasingly precarious, with an emboldened Russia, a damaged — if not decaying — trans-Atlantic relationship, and significant military and energy dependencies. This week, Richard Gray and Jersey Lee discuss the options Europe is currently faced with, how it might approach a "pivot to Asia", and the tradeoffs of such an “eastward” shift.

Since the end of the Vietnam Wars, Southeast Asian states have opened, prospered, and strengthened relations with each other and states abroad. But, as the U.S.-China relationship continues to escalate, the Myanmar civil war continues unabated, and President Trump de-prioritizes multilateral institutions, ASEAN will face unique stressors.

Australia is a steadfast ally of the United States, but its relationship with the U.S. is not without limits.

In this first episode of Pacific Polarity, Richard and Jersey discuss the state of play in U.S.-Australia relations. They cover historic convergence and divergence between the two states, the role of China in defining their relations, and the ways in which the Australian Labor government might approach President Trump’s second term.