Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news global trade is rising and quite impressively, but the US is being shunned (or shunning itself).

But first, US initial jobless claims rose more than +29,000 last week, marginally more than level seasonal factors would have accounted for. But there are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits and quite a bit hi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news the fall of the USD is driving some renewed realignments.

To start we should note that gold has surpassed US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years driven primarily by sharply rising prices, and some aggressive buying by some (mainly autocrat) central banks.

El...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news today is all about commodity prices. Silver has jumped sharply, gold and platinum are up, copper is at a record high, and both nickel and aluminium have surged too. Tin is at a three year high. Lithium is on the move up again too after a two year slumber.

It's not only ha...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news elevated global uncertainty is pushing up prices for key minerals sharply today. Wall Street is of two minds about the risks and opportunities.

But first in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted for a third consecutive month in December to the lowest level since October 2024 and lower than expected. Manufacturing activity co...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news the global economy is ticking over normally, despite the weekend theatrics.

In the coming week there is very little official data released in New Zealand. But in Australia we will get the November CPI readout, building permit data, and the merchandise trade result, both also for November. There are widespread expectations that th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news precious metals prices are zooming higher today, most to new all-time heights.

But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is back being tracked following the shutdown and it shows activity still notably lower than its long run trend, even if it did improve in September from August. It is...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news we are ending 2025 with more signs of the consequences of the Trump twist and the fading of American economic dominance. But it may not be to China where the economic power flows.

This short week is critical worldwide for retail sales, but discounting early is well set in most markets so there ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.

But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November da...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news we are entering the end of year shadow of economic releases, but there are still some important things to come. And the upcoming sentiment signals as the holidays approach are not overly optimistic. Today tech industry concerns are weighing on equity markets.

Elsewhere, US mortgage applications fell -3.8% last week, the biggest di...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news of some messy US data which Wall Street is nervous about, but elsewhere most other countries are on the improve (China excepted).

But first up today, the overnight dairy auction was another bad one with prices down -4.4% in USD terms and down -5.4% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -5...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we start with news the US Fed is struggling with its diverging views ahead of tomorrow's catch up non-farm payrolls report. Wall Street is dipping in anticipation. The oil price is falling on concerns demand is weakening.

Overnight, two Fed speakers were out delivering different views. Trump insert Stephen Miran essentially called affordability concerns overblown and re...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news today dominated by the vile attack in Sydney, extremism begetting extremism all permitted by unfiltered hatreds flowing out from its center. Financial news seems trivial in light of this. Of course we won't be covering this Australian tragedy. But it is likely to harden attitudes just when they need to soften.

In...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world's economy is handling the US tariff-tax buffeting quite well.

Financial market reactions to the US Fed rate cut yesterday, and the nature of its split decision, has seen the USD fall, bonds shift to a risk averse tone, and Wall Street retreat, although it has recovered to break-even in th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets have essentially been on hold overnight awaiting the US Fed's decision.

In the end, the Fed's FOMC trimmed its key rate by -25 bps to 3.75% as markets had guessed it would do. But it was not unanimous. The Trump stooge on the committee wanted a far larger cut. But the pr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world is awash in better economic news today in many of the world's largest economies.

First, the overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually do...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.

In th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news long term global bond yields are rising.

The coming week will be one dominated by the final central bank monetary policy decisions of the year. The big one, the one that will likely move markets, is the US one on Thursday NZT. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 3.75%. There will al...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.

But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.

...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.

There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nin...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world is in a slowdown period as the globally large economies show signs of culminating.

But we start today with some tough news. The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected la...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.

First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.

Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the global economy has one month to go to bolster its 2025 economic performance, all down to retail sales now.

First, of course, the US is now in its Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the start of their big retail period until Christmas. A lot rides on the consumer spending activity in this period. It...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news notable data in both Australia and New Zealand yesterday has reset our currencies and our benchmark interest rates.

In New Zealand of course it was the market reaction to the RBNZ OCR cut, in Australia it was the unexpected rise in their CPI inflation. Both had a cumulative impact in both co...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.

But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a ra...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.

First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.

But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear ho...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.

First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up fr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.

First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance ac...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.

But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was do...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.

But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lo...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.

Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that we have unexpectedly weak data from China and unexpectedly strong data from Australia.

But first in the US, it is back to work for their Federal government after the record 43 day shutdown impasse ends - at least until January 30 when the current deal needs renewal again. Missed official data releases th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.

First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, ha...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news economic optimism seems to be on the rise in many places, but not in the world's largest economy.

First in the US, not only is the federal government shut down still, but it is Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, although many firms still operate including the NYSE. But the Wall Street bo...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is moving to end its government shutdown.

First, Wall Street has started its week positively with the S&P 500 rising, the Nasdaq rising even more, and the Dow Jones gaining over 240 points as optimism grew that the US Federal government shutdown could soon end. In a procedural vote yesterday, the...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Chinese data released over the weekend indicates their domestic economy is holding its own, and their export economy continues to thrive, despite Trump.

But first a look ahead. Locally, we will get a fix on retail sales this week on Thursday with the release of the October electronic cards data, and po...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with the mess in the US is getting worse as 'retribution' is ramped up. Markets are getting nervous.

First, the US government shutdown is masking official data that would show growing troubles in their economy. Today the Challenger job cut report for October revealed that softening consumer demand, the shutdown, AI adoption and hi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with the good bits of news which seem to dominate today are in fact masking some less-than-good trends nested within them.

First up, US ADP employment report on private payrolls for October reported a +42,000 rise in filled jobs, much better than the -29,000 shedding in September and also better than the expected +25,000 gain ob...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with of leaking economic signals everywhere we look today. And the NZD is in retreat as the mood sours on commodity currencies, and Wall Street follows.

First, the overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar ch...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with mixed news about how the world's factories are faring.

First up today we need to report that the closely watched US ISM factory PMI undershot expectations, and those expectations were for a contraction anyway. Weak new order flows and production levels were behind the dour result. They say almost every component is co...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news rising inflation pressures are now appearing everywhere in the West, underpinned by poor economic judgements.

This week will be a busy one on the economic data front, even with the US federal agencies shut down.

Locally, all eyes will be on the Q3 labour market data and most observers ex...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.

Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the two big policy set pieces today have been underwhelming.

First up today, the US Fed trimmed its policy rate by -25% as expected, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It issued a timid wait-and-see review which would be consistent with growing divisions within the policymaking committee, and growing worries that in...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.

In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of se...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news expectations are gyrating around the upcoming US-China leaders meeting. Markets have high expectations and are pricing in a positive outcome. For US markets, this is relatively modest and a 'relief'. For Chinese markets, and Asian markets more generally, it is very positive.

A surge in market euphoria could well bring a su...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of a sudden jump in international crude oil prices as the US sanctioned the main Russian oil companies.

In the US, existing home sales in September rose to just over a 4 mln annual pace, slightly more than in August and +3.3% better than year-ago levels. But it was to levels less than ma...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US federal Government shutdown is now the second longest in their history having just overtaken the 1995-96 one where Republicans were trying to prevent a Clinton budget being passed. The longest was the 2018-19 one induced by Trump. The current one has seen about 1 mln federal workers stood down, and that is th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the market assumption that Trump's upcoming meeting with Chinese president Xi would calm trade matters seems up in the air again, with that meeting now suddenly less certain. And a Trump-Putin meeting chance is fading. As well as the Gaza truce holding. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode today. But precious metals prices ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Australia seems to have avoided American ire when Prime Minister Albanese visited Washington overnight. They ended with a rare earths agreement, confirmation of the AUKUS submarine deal, and unchanged 10% tariff rates into the US.

Albanese also seems to have avoided being forced into an overt anti-China position, and has resisted committing to...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Australia is facing some hard choices in their relationships with China and the US. Can you have security without economic stability? Can you have stability with a disrespectful and unreliable partner?

But first, this coming week will be dominated by today's New Zealand CPI release later this morning. And a full da...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'r...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is getting entrenched in the US and policymakers are starting to look away from the threat under political pressure.

But first, US mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week with both refinance and new home applications decreasing. This came even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates fell too. But the ov...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news both Fed boss Powell, and the IMF are increasingly concerned about financial stability.

But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Trump (and Vance) are attempting to roll-back their aggression in the face of ugly financial market reactions and firm Chinese pushbacks. That cheered Wall Street and American investors, but others are watching the risks mount and have pushed precious metals prices up sharply.

Meanwhile, China said their exports rose +8.3% in September fr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets will be on edge this week after a sharp -2.7% retreat on Wall Street on Friday and the largest one-day drop since early April. Bonds twisted into defensive mode. Commodities fell, especially oil. Bitcoin retreated sharply. And the USD shifted into its traditional risk-averse mode but not by as much as you mi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news China's economic activity over their holiday period will be impressing investors, while the US worries about weakening labour markets.

But first, the ongoing US Federal Government shutdown means there is no USDA WASDE report for September that was due today. That will delay scrutiny of "farmageddon" especially for soybean farmers. Bailouts ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news it seems the absence of official US economic data isn't holding back financial market risk takers, and even the data that is available, none of it very positive, isn't restraining them either.

First in the US, consumer debt growth seems to have evaporated in August. They were expecting a 'normal' +US$12 bl...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news most of the latest economic data seems to be on a downslide.

The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are running positively, but without the guardrails of American economic data, while the US Federal shutdown extends. In their absence, consumer and tech speculations are generating considerable froth.

But first in China, their Mid-Autumn festival holiday spending should tell us a lot about their economic activity, and the initial si...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while much of the financial world seems disconnected from economic reality, we are about to reminded of our local realities this week.

This week will be all about the RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday. Will it be a -25 bps cut or a -50 bps cut? Financial markets do not kn...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is throwing out its existing economic playbooks and replacing it with personal revenge and retribution.

First, there is no progress on the US federal government shutdown, other than Trump declaring it an 'unprecedented opportunity' to defund his opponents. The childishness of the approach by a world power is something to...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets are maintaining a wilful blindness in the face of the arrival of some major threats and poor data.

Firstly we should note that the US Federal Government is shutting down having reached its debt limit, and in the absence of a compromise reached between Congress (the Senate in this case) an...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..

But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.

Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news even the giant American economy can't seem to maintain its momentum, with Trump grabbing at all the levers of government. He is even taking government domain names and inserting is personal interests. It will become increasingly hard to separate real American economic data from that skewed by his army of MAGA blackshirts who ha...

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Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that currency markets, bond markets and equity markets all react to unexpectedly 'strong' US data releases overnight, much of it sceptical. In fact we are getting rising risk aversion questioning its believability.

US initial jobless claims came in last week at just over 180,000, and less than expected, and less than seasonal fa...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are less than a week away from another potential US federal government funding shutdown.

But first up today, we can report American August data for new home sales has surprised everyone and jumped a very sharp +20% from July to an annualised rate of 800,000. Few saw this coming. Analysts say sharp di...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.

But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise be...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit on southern China.

But first up, we can report that the US National Activity Index as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised lower.

Th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are likely to get a lesson this week reconfirming that equity markets all look for short-term profit hits and are now setting prices on these short-term factors. But bond markets are much more focused on risks 10-30 years ahead and their signals are diverging markedly.

This coming week however will la...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.

But first in the US, in...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are struggling to make sense of the US Fed's latest rate cut rationale, one that looks infused with new White House politics.

First up this morning, the US central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% as expected, despite noting that American inflation is "somewhat elevated". It is...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets now universally expect the American central bank to cut rates tomorrow by -25 bps.

But today, the overnight dairy auction brought a much better result than expected with the declines for both WMP and SMP nowhere near as sharp as indicated by the earlier derivatives pricing. That will very much ea...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news both the US and China are eyeing rate cuts to bolster wavering economies.

While all financial market attention is on the US Fed and its Thursday rate review - and market positioning is underway relative to the expected -25 bps cut - there is other economic news being released.

Th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news fighting inflation may well be a downgraded objective in the face of political pressure. The consequences could be long-lasting and global.

For financial markets, this week will be all about the US Fed's Thursday rate decision where now a -25 bps cut is widely anticipated, to try and weigh against the so...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news away from the guns and hatred consuming the US at present. Our challenge is to keep it out of our society.

Markets had been waiting for the American August CPI inflation data and it came in higher, although no more than expected. It rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, af...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news all eyes are now on tomorrow's US CPI release for August.

But first, there was surprising news from the US. August producer prices rose far less than any analyst has forecast. In fact they fell -0.1% in August from July, following a downwardly revised +0.7% gain in July, driven by a sharp de...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that rather than understating US jobs growth - which got her fired - the stats agency reporting labour market data overstated Trump's jobs growth, and by some margin.

But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction earlier today for both SMP and WMP, and while prices dipped as expected, th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news bond markets are increasingly worried about what will transpire from the US CPI data for August later this week, and the US Fed's reaction next week.

First today, American inflation expectations seem to be rising. In August they came in at 3.2%, their highest in three months. While that is higher than ye...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news American right-wing swamp populism is driving the world's economy into a blind alley. Other countries are trying to figure out how to separate themselves from that.

In the week ahead, financial markets will be assessing the risks of stagflation after the weaker labour market report in the US, and the growing ex...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets can now taste a US Fed rate cut.

Today, all eye are on tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report for the US. Analysts expect them to rise a minor +75,000 but overnight labour market data suggests that may be optimistic.

First, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 197,000 wh...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world's largest economy is being hit today with a string of pessimistic data reports, despite one of the tech giants avoiding a breakup which saw its shares surge to a record high.

American job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 mln in July and that was the lowest level since September 2024 and we...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that US financial markets are back from holiday and concluding that the tech sector is over-valued and that US public policy is heading into a blind alley. The bond market sentiment we noted in the past month has now spread into the equity markets.

And you can see the rising risk av...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.

In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Gl...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.

In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump’s global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.

Then...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.

In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual te...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we need to brace for an end to the US Fed's independence. It may not be at risk right now, but the signs aren't promising. And politicians everywhere will seize on the mood to pull that level, to ease their own policies that don't deliver. The juice of monetary stimulus is just too en...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.

But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior we...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while much of the northern hemisphere is enjoying the last of their summer holidays, Chinese investors have returned in a bullish mood, and in contrast to the now-jaded US equity markets.

But first in the US, consumer credit bureau VantageScore is reporting that consumers with the best credit scores (superprime) ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Fed boss Powell gave a hint at Jackson Hole that weaker American labour market conditions may trump inflation risks when they next meet in three weeks - and a rate cut is a live possibility.

Before that, Thursday NZT, the market darling Nvidia is set to report its results, and any va...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.

In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The nu...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Fed thinks inflation risks outweigh concerns about their labour market.

But first. in its familiar yoyo pattern, US mortgage applications fell last week by -1.4% from the prior week, but that makes then +10% higher than the same week a year ago. The softness over the past week is all re...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news commodity prices are taking a hit in global markets today as overall economic prospects are under scrutiny in both the US and China. And Wall Street is following them down, in their case led by tech firms.

Prices for both hard and soft commodities are in retreat today, including oil, natural ga...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that attention will now turn to the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, WO. This year Fed boss Powell is not only trying to balance US monetary policy settings between rising inflation pressures and a basically stable (and good) labour market, he also has to contend with a unstable fiscal policies and political pr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news consumer hesitations are showing up the world's largest economies.

But first, our week ahead will be dominated by Wednesday's RBNZ OCR rate review, one that is widely expected, by both analysts and financial markets, to deliver a -25 bps cut. That will flow though to floating mortgage and savings rates, but it...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news tariff-costs seem to be having much more impact on US prices than on global trade.

But first, US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 199,000 but that was slightly lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now just over 2 mln people on these benefits, +100,000 more than at th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of a rare drop in bank lending in China from weak demand.

But first up today, we need to report that "due to a technical issue", yesterday's GDT Pulse Auction was cancelled prior to its completion.

Meanwhile in the US, and boosted by a very sharp surge in refinance ac...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is staying high in the US but retreating in India and Australia.

The US CPI inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Still it is worth noting that June's level caused Trump to fire the bearer of that news. But the level ha...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay.

However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in June. That means they sold 2.6 mln un...